"I pride myself and think of myself as a man of faith, as there's a drive into deep left field by Castellanos and that'll be a home run. And so that'll make it a 4-0 ballgame. I don't know..."
Hi Keith. I have read your book- SMART Baseball. I am a long time baseball fan and analyze the game to ridiculous levels. I agree with most of your arguments portrayed in the book. The one I am not convinced of is your discussion on RBIs.
The goal is to score runs as an offense. For that to happen, someone has to score the run and someone has to drive him in. In the case of a home run, the player benefits from both.
Things like Hits, walks and HBP are symptoms, that may suggest a guy COULD have a high run scored rate. But its like saying if you have high blood pressure you MAY have eventually have a heart attack. Its a symptom. Why do we use symptoms when the end results are perfectly available? Runs and RBIs.
Hence I like to use Run Created Pct. as a measure of a players value. If I put the best qualified players at each position in the American League into a mock line-up based on this number, the expected runs per game would be 5.15, assuming 40 PAs. Its higher then the league average of just under 38, but its an all-star line up- and they should get to at least 40 PAs.
Using the same basis I chose several other stats, again picking the best possible qualified player at each position to derive an expected runs per game. Here are those results:
Based on Batting Average 4.29
Based on OBP 4.69
Based on OPS 5.02
Based on Slugging Pct. 5.02
Based On HRs 4.88
Run Created Pct. is clearly the superior stat, ansd it makes sense because we are immediately using the most important objective--to score runs. The rest is "nice to know stuff.
All the above numbers are through August 18th. Here is what would be the best possible all-star line up for the American League:
1. Story-ss
2. Buxton-cf
3. Judge-rf
4. Raleigh-c
5. Guerrero, Jr.-1b
6. Springer-dh
7. Wi. Abreu-lf
8. Caminero-3b
9. B.Lowe-2b
All numbers for the other stats are also as of August 18th.
I hope you enjoy this analysis and look forward to any comments you may have
Hi Keith. I have read your book- SMART Baseball. I am a long time baseball fan and analyze the game to ridiculous levels. I agree with most of your arguments portrayed in the book. The one I am not convinced of is your discussion on RBIs.
The goal is to score runs as an offense. For that to happen, someone has to score the run and someone has to drive him in. In the case of a home run, the player benefits from both.
Things like Hits, walks and HBP are symptoms, that may suggest a guy COULD have a high run scored rate. But its like saying if you have high blood pressure you MAY have eventually have a heart attack. Its a symptom. Why do we use symptoms when the end results are perfectly available? Runs and RBIs.
Hence I like to use Run Created Pct. as a measure of a players value. If I put the best qualified players at each position in the American League into a mock line-up based on this number, the expected runs per game would be 5.15, assuming 40 PAs. Its higher then the league average of just under 38, but its an all-star line up- and they should get to at least 40 PAs.
Using the same basis I chose several other stats, again picking the best possible qualified player at each position to derive an expected runs per game. Here are those results:
Based on Batting Average 4.29
Based on OBP 4.69
Based on OPS 5.02
Based on Slugging Pct. 5.02
Based On HRs 4.88
Run Created Pct. is clearly the superior stat, ansd it makes sense because we are immediately using the most important objective--to score runs. The rest is "nice to know stuff.
All the above numbers are through August 18th. Here is what would be the best possible all-star line up for the American League:
1. Story-ss
2. Buxton-cf
3. Judge-rf
4. Raleigh-c
5. Guerrero, Jr.-1b
6. Springer-dh
7. Wi. Abreu-lf
8. Caminero-3b
9. B.Lowe-2b
All numbers for the other stats are also as of August 18th.
I hope you enjoy this analysis and look forward to any comments you may have
Kindest Regards
Doug K.
djk581223@gmail.com
PS, the calculation is (Runs + RBI - HR)/ PA